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	mobility-sequence Mobility: Et Cetera [ Part of a sequence of posts on income mobility ] Economic Conditions Researchers used administrative data from Canada to track the career outcomes of millions of male college graduates, focusing on whether graduating during the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s was associated with lower earnings Oreopoulos. Their findings can probably best be summarized by figure 1A, which lets you see average career trajectories by the year someone graduated college: Or, to quote the authors: A typical recession—a rise in unemployment rates by 5 percentage points in our context—implies an initial loss in earnings of about 9 percent that halves within 5 years, and finally fades to 0 by 10 years. If you compute the NPV using a 6% (real) discount rate, this suggests a loss of about 40% of a year of earnings. This question was also analyzed using US data Davis, where they find even larger effects. Location in Adulthood The US government annual conducts the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey. From this it publishes median pay split by geographic area, occupation, and "levels". The last one is an abstract measure of job selectivity/difficulty. TODO Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics Parental Leave TODO: How Important Is Paternity Leave? (and its cited sources) Oreopoulos, P., Von Wachter, T., & Heisz, A. (2012). The short-and long-term career effects of graduating in a recession. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(1), 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.4.1.1 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/oes/ Davis, S. J., & Von Wachter, T. M. (2011). Recessions and the cost of job loss (No. w17638). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w17638 Oster, E. (2023). How Important Is Paternity Leave? Impacts of parental leave for the non-birthing parent. ParentData. Substack. https://www.parentdata.org/p/how-important-is-paternity-leave

mobility-sequence

Mobility: Et Cetera

[ Part of a sequence of posts on income mobility ]

Economic Conditions

Researchers used administrative data from Canada to track the career outcomes of millions of male college graduates, focusing on whether graduating during the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s was associated with lower earnings Oreopoulos.

Their findings can probably best be summarized by figure 1A, which lets you see average career trajectories by the year someone graduated college:

Or, to quote the authors:

A typical recession—a rise in unemployment rates by 5 percentage points in our context—implies an initial loss in earnings of about 9 percent that halves within 5 years, and finally fades to 0 by 10 years.

If you compute the NPV using a 6% (real) discount rate, this suggests a loss of about 40% of a year of earnings.

This question was also analyzed using US data Davis, where they find even larger effects.

Location in Adulthood

The US government annual conducts the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey. From this it publishes median pay split by geographic area, occupation, and "levels". The last one is an abstract measure of job selectivity/difficulty.

TODO Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics

Parental Leave

TODO: How Important Is Paternity Leave? (and its cited sources)

Oreopoulos, P., Von Wachter, T., & Heisz, A. (2012). The short-and long-term career effects of graduating in a recession. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(1), 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.4.1.1 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/oes/ Davis, S. J., & Von Wachter, T. M. (2011). Recessions and the cost of job loss (No. w17638). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w17638 Oster, E. (2023). How Important Is Paternity Leave? Impacts of parental leave for the non-birthing parent. ParentData. Substack. https://www.parentdata.org/p/how-important-is-paternity-leave